Complete Track Record
The table below covers every major Bitcoin cycle turning point since December 2018, the earliest bottom that falls within the NHCI's full calibration period. For each event, the NHCI Score entered the appropriate zone — Bottom (0–35) or NeverHodl™ (75–100) — with enough advance time to be actionable.
| Date | Event | NHCI Zone | Score | Advance | BTC Price | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | Bear market bottom | BOTTOM | ~12 | — | $3,200 | +400% in 12m ✓ |
| Mar 2020 | COVID crash bottom | BOTTOM | ~18 | — | $4,000 | +800% in 18m ✓ |
| Apr 2021 | Local cycle top | NEVERHODL™ | ~78 | 18 days | $58,000 | -53% in 3m ✓ |
| Nov 2021 | Cycle ATH | NEVERHODL™ | ~82 | 12 days | $69,000 | -75% in 12m ✓ |
| Nov 2022 | FTX bear bottom | BOTTOM | ~22 | — | $15,600 | +280% in 12m ✓ |
| Jan 2023 | Recovery confirmation | ACCUMULATION | ~38 | — | $17,000 | Confirmed ✓ |
| Oct 2025 | Cycle ATH $126K | NEVERHODL™ | ~76 | 24 days | $103,000 entry | → $126,198 → -30% ✓ |
| Feb 2026 | Correction bottom | BOTTOM | ~28 | — | — | Recovery phase ✓ |
Methodology note: "Advance" refers to the number of days before the ultimate price peak/trough that the NHCI first entered the NeverHodl™ zone (75+) or Bottom zone (0–35). For bottom signals, the entry into the zone itself is the signal.
How the Signals Are Generated
The NHCI Score is a 0-to-100 composite index that aggregates 37 on-chain, macroeconomic, and market structure indicators. The score is computed hourly and updated every day with a new daily snapshot at 06:00 UTC.
The five zones correspond to distinct phases of the Bitcoin market cycle:
- 0–35 (Bottom): Deep capitulation. On-chain metrics show extreme undervaluation.
- 35–45 (Accumulation): Recovery phase. Smart money accumulating.
- 45–65 (Bull Active): Sustained uptrend. Standard hold zone.
- 65–75 (Hot Zone): Overheated. Risk/reward deteriorating.
- 75–100 (NeverHodl™): Cycle top territory. Multiple top indicators firing.
Two proprietary overlays — DescentGuard™ and InstitutionalTopRisk™ — provide additional contextual warnings. InstitutionalTopRisk™ has produced 5/5 correct top signals.
About the Calibration
The NHCI Score v3.2 is calibrated against 3,414 days of Bitcoin data from January 2017 to May 2026, covering 4 complete halving cycles.
Full methodology available at neverhodl.com/methodology. Data attribution at neverhodl.com/attribution.
For press inquiries or data licensing, contact us via the Press page. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Methodology → · Live API → · Data Attribution →
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