Methodology

How the NHCI Score is Calculated

The NHCI (NeverHodl Cycle Intelligence) is a 0-to-100 composite score that measures where Bitcoin is in its market cycle. It combines 37 on-chain, macroeconomic, and market indicators, updated every hour, using phase-adaptive weights and 9+ years of historical calibration.

37
Indicators
3,414
Calibration days
8/8
Turning points called
v3.2
Current version
Core Method

Phase-Adaptive Weighted Composite

The NHCI is not a simple average. It is a weighted composite where indicator weights shift based on the current cycle phase. Indicators that are most predictive at cycle tops receive higher weight when the score is elevated. Indicators that signal capitulation receive higher weight when the score is depressed.

This phase-adaptive approach reflects a core principle: the same indicator means different things at different points in the cycle. MVRV at 3.5 during a bull market peak signals very different conditions than MVRV at 3.5 during a recovery.

"Each indicator is normalized to a 0–100 scale using a proprietary statistical method calibrated against 9+ years of Bitcoin data (2017–2026). The normalization is designed for robustness against the extreme outlier events common in crypto markets."

Score Scale

0–35 BOTTOM Deep capitulation. On-chain metrics show extreme undervaluation. Historically the highest-return entry zone.
35–45 ACCUMULATION Recovery phase. Smart money accumulating. Market sentiment still fearful. Strong risk/reward window.
45–65 BULL ACTIVE Sustained uptrend. Broad participation increasing. Standard buy-and-hold zone. Risk/reward still positive.
65–75 HOT ZONE Overheated. Greed dominant. Risk/reward deteriorating. Partial profit-taking appropriate.
75–100 NEVERHODL™ Cycle top territory. Multiple cycle-top indicators firing simultaneously. Historical sell zone.
The 37 Indicators

Six Categories of Market Intelligence

The NHCI aggregates signals across six distinct categories. No single indicator dominates — the composite approach provides resilience against any one signal giving a false reading.

CAT 1 On-Chain Fundamentals 9 indicators
MVRV — Market Value to Realized Value. Measures unrealized profit across all holders.
NUPL — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. Aggregate profit/loss as fraction of market cap.
SOPR — Spent Output Profit Ratio. Profit/loss at the point of spending.
LTH-SOPR — SOPR for coins held longer than 155 days.
STH-MVRV — MVRV for coins held less than 155 days.
LTH-MVRV — MVRV for coins held longer than 155 days.
Puell Multiple — Miner revenue relative to 365-day average. Miner stress indicator.
Thermocap Multiple — Market cap relative to cumulative miner revenue. Valuation floor.
Reserve Risk — Confidence of long-term holders relative to the price opportunity.
CAT 2 Market Sentiment & Structure 6 indicators
Fear & Greed Index (Alternative.me) — Composite retail sentiment indicator.
BTC Dominance — Bitcoin's share of total crypto market capitalization.
Funding Rate — Perpetual futures funding rate (leveraged sentiment proxy).
Open Interest — Total notional value of open futures contracts.
BTC RSI-14 — 14-day Relative Strength Index.
SSR Oscillator — Stablecoin Supply Ratio: BTC market cap vs stablecoin supply.
CAT 3 Macro Liquidity — US 5 indicators
Global M2 YoY% — Year-over-year M2 money supply growth (global aggregate).
Global M2 3m% — 3-month M2 acceleration (leading indicator for liquidity expansion).
Fed Balance Sheet — Federal Reserve total assets (WALCL). Quantitative easing proxy.
US 10Y Yield — 10-year Treasury yield. Risk-on/risk-off signal.
VIX — CBOE Volatility Index. Equity market fear gauge.
CAT 4 Macro Liquidity — Global Central Banks 8 indicators
EU M3 — European M3 money supply.
ECB Balance Sheet — European Central Bank total assets.
Japan M2 — Bank of Japan M2 money supply.
Japan Monetary Base — Bank of Japan monetary base.
UK M4 — Bank of England M4 money supply.
BoE Balance Sheet — Bank of England total assets.
China M2 — People's Bank of China M2 money supply.
PBoC Balance Sheet — People's Bank of China total assets.
CAT 5 FX & Stablecoins 5 indicators
DXY — US Dollar Index. Inverse correlation with Bitcoin in risk-off environments.
EUR/USD, JPY/USD, GBP/USD, CNY/USD — Major currency pairs as macro regime signals.
Stablecoin Supply Total — Total stablecoin market cap (buying power proxy).
CAT 6 Flow & Holder Behavior 3 indicators
Exchange Net Flow — Net BTC flowing to/from exchanges. Negative = accumulation.
Miner Net Flow — Net BTC flowing from miners. Proxy for sell pressure.
Recession Probability (NY Fed model) — Macro recession risk context.
Proprietary Overlays

Beyond the Score: Contextual Intelligence

After the composite score is computed, two proprietary overlays are applied to add contextual warnings that the raw score alone cannot capture.

DESCENTGUARD

Bear Market Descent Detection

DescentGuard activates when a score in the apparent accumulation range is actually part of an ongoing bear market descent from a recent peak. Without it, a falling score can look like an entry opportunity when the market is still declining.

  • Detects: active bear market descents disguised as accumulation zones
  • Analyzes: momentum, on-chain holder behavior, and market structure data
  • Deactivates: only when multiple independent capitulation signals confirm a genuine bottom
  • Validated: correctly flagged Nov 2021 → Jun 2022 descent and Nov 2025 → Feb 2026 correction
INSTITUTIONAL TOP RISK

Cycle Top Distribution Pattern Detection

InstitutionalTopRisk operates independently of the main score. It detects distribution patterns from large holders — institutional-scale selling that often precedes cycle tops. It can fire before the score fully enters the NeverHodl™ zone.

  • Detects: on-chain distribution signatures from long-term holders and large-cap participants
  • Operates: independently of the main NHCI score for early warning capability
  • Exact triggers: proprietary — not disclosed
  • Track record: 5/5 correct signals — Apr 2021, Nov 2021, Oct 2025, Dec 2025, Apr 2026
Track Record

8 out of 8 Major Turning Points

Since 2017, the NHCI has correctly identified every major Bitcoin cycle turning point — 4 bottoms and 4 tops. The historical calibration covers 3,414 days from January 2017 to May 2026.

Date Event NHCI Signal BTC Price Advance Warning Outcome
Dec 2018 Bear bottom BOTTOM (~12) $3,200 — +400% in 12 months ✓
Mar 2020 COVID crash BOTTOM (~18) $4,000 — +800% in 18 months ✓
Apr 2021 Local top NEVERHODL™ (~78) $58,000 18 days -53% in 3 months ✓
Nov 2021 Cycle ATH NEVERHODL™ (~82) $69,000 12 days -75% in 12 months ✓
Nov 2022 FTX bottom BOTTOM (~22) $15,600 — +280% in 12 months ✓
Jan 2023 Recovery confirmation ACCUMULATION $17,000 — Confirmed accumulation ✓
Oct 2025 Cycle ATH NEVERHODL™ (~76) $103,000 entry 24 days ATH $126,198 → -30% ✓
Q1 2026 Correction bottom BOTTOM (~28) — — Recovery phase began ✓

"The NHCI Score entered the NEVERHODL zone on October 2, 2025. Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,198 on October 26, 2025 — 24 days later. This was the most recent of 8 consecutive correct major cycle turning point identifications since 2017."

See the Live NHCI Score

The NHCI Score updates every hour. View the current cycle phase, access the public API, and read the live dashboard — all free.

Live Dashboard → What is NHCI? → Public API →