What is a bull market top signal?

A bull market top signal is a measurable data point — from on-chain activity, market structure, or investor sentiment — that has historically reached extreme levels in the weeks or months before Bitcoin's price peaked in a given cycle. No single signal is a guaranteed sell trigger. But when multiple signals fire at the same time, the probability of being near a cycle top rises significantly.

Bitcoin has completed three full bull-to-bear cycles since 2012: 2013, 2017, and 2021. Each one ended with a cluster of identifiable signals. The NHCI Score monitors these signals continuously — along with 30+ other indicators — to give a real-time reading of where we are in the current cycle.

3/3
Cycles where MVRV Z-Score exceeded 7 before the top
4+
Signals firing simultaneously at each historical cycle top
75+
NHCI Score threshold for the NeverHodl™ zone — historical exit territory

The 5 most reliable on-chain top signals

On-chain signals are derived directly from Bitcoin's blockchain — they reflect what holders are actually doing with their coins, not just what they say. These five have the strongest historical track record across all three completed cycles.

HIGH RELIABILITY
SIGNAL 01
MVRV Z-Score above 7
THRESHOLD: Z > 7
MVRV measures the ratio between Bitcoin's current market cap and its realized cap — what the market is valued at vs. what holders actually paid. When the Z-Score exceeds 7, the market is statistically overheated relative to historical norms. At the November 2021 top, MVRV Z hit ~8.5. At the December 2017 top, it peaked at ~10.
2021: Z ~8.5 2017: Z ~10 2013: Z ~14
HIGH RELIABILITY
SIGNAL 02
NUPL in Euphoria (>0.75)
THRESHOLD: NUPL > 0.75
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures the total paper profit sitting across all Bitcoin holders. When NUPL rises above 0.75, more than 75% of the total Bitcoin supply is in profit — typically the zone where long-term holders begin taking profits at scale. At the December 2017 top, NUPL reached ~0.87. At the November 2021 top, it reached ~0.75.
2021 top: ~0.75 2017 top: ~0.87
HIGH RELIABILITY
SIGNAL 03
aSOPR sustained above 1.10
THRESHOLD: aSOPR > 1.10 FOR 30+ DAYS
The adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) tracks whether Bitcoin being moved on any given day was sold at a profit or a loss. A sustained reading above 1.10 — meaning holders are realizing more than 10% average profit on every coin moved — signals widespread distribution. In 2021, aSOPR held above 1.08–1.12 for extended periods before both the April and November peaks.
2021 Apr peak: ~1.10 2021 Nov peak: ~1.08
HIGH RELIABILITY
SIGNAL 04
Long-Term Holder distribution
THRESHOLD: LTH SUPPLY DECLINING
Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are wallets that have held Bitcoin for 155+ days without moving. During bear markets and early bull phases, LTHs accumulate. As prices rise toward cycle tops, LTHs begin distributing their coins to new market entrants. When the total supply held by LTHs starts declining significantly, it is one of the clearest early signs that smart money is reducing exposure.
LTH supply peak: 2–3 months before price top True in all 3 cycles
MEDIUM RELIABILITY
SIGNAL 05
Persistently high positive funding rates
THRESHOLD: FUNDING > 0.05%/8H FOR 2+ WEEKS
Perpetual futures funding rates reflect whether leveraged long or short positions dominate the market. When funding rates remain persistently positive above 0.05% per 8-hour period for more than two weeks, it indicates heavy speculative long positions — a crowded trade that becomes increasingly fragile. Before the May 2021 crash from $64,000 to $30,000, funding rates consistently exceeded 0.10%/8h for weeks. High funding alone is not a top signal, but combined with MVRV and NUPL in extreme zones, it increases the risk profile significantly.
May 2021 crash: funding was 0.10%+/8h for weeks prior Nov 2021: funding elevated before final peak
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2 market structure signals

Beyond on-chain data, two market structure signals have appeared at or near every Bitcoin cycle top. These are not as precise as MVRV or NUPL — they can persist for weeks at extreme levels — but they provide important context.

MEDIUM RELIABILITY
SIGNAL 06
BTC Dominance falling sharply below 45%
THRESHOLD: BTC DOM < 45% WITH DOWNTREND
Bitcoin dominance — BTC's share of total crypto market cap — tends to fall in the final stages of a bull market as capital rotates into smaller altcoins. This is a late-cycle signal: it reflects euphoric speculation spreading to higher-risk assets. In January 2018, BTC dominance fell to ~35% as the alt mania peaked alongside BTC's top. In May 2021, it fell to ~40% before the first major correction of that cycle.
Jan 2018: BTC dom ~35% May 2021: BTC dom ~40%
MEDIUM RELIABILITY
SIGNAL 07
Fear & Greed above 80 for 3+ weeks
THRESHOLD: F&G > 80 · SUSTAINED
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index aggregates volatility, momentum, social media volume, surveys, and market dominance into a 0–100 score. Readings above 80 indicate Extreme Greed. In November 2021, F&G was at 84 on the day of Bitcoin's $69,000 all-time high. Sustained Extreme Greed above 80 for three or more weeks has historically preceded sharp reversals.
Nov 2021 ATH day: F&G = 84 Dec 2017 ATH: F&G ~95
Key principle: No single signal above is a reliable standalone sell trigger. At every historical cycle top, at least 4 of these 7 signals were firing simultaneously. The more signals align, the higher the probability of being in a late-cycle environment.

How the NHCI Score reflects cycle tops

The BTC NHCI Score does not predict tops — it measures the current risk/reward environment using 37 indicators simultaneously. As a bull market matures and more signals enter extreme territory, the NHCI Score rises through defined phases, each with a historical risk profile.

NHCI 45–65
Active Bull
Early-to-mid bull phase. MVRV rising but below extreme levels. NUPL in the 0.50–0.75 range. aSOPR modestly above 1. Normal bull market conditions — favorable risk/reward.
MVRV moderate NUPL positive aSOPR above 1
NHCI 65–75
Hot Zone
Multiple top signals starting to fire. MVRV elevated, NUPL approaching euphoria, funding rates rising. Historical probability of being near a cycle top increases. Risk management becomes critical.
MVRV elevated NUPL approaching euphoria Funding elevated
NHCI 75+
NeverHodl™
Majority of top signals aligned. MVRV above 7, NUPL in euphoria, LTH distribution underway, Fear & Greed at Extreme Greed. This is the zone where Bitcoin was at its most dangerous historically — and where the NHCI Score reaches its namesake threshold.
MVRV > 7 NUPL > 0.75 LTH distributing F&G > 80
NHCI 0–35
Bottom / Bear
The phase that follows a top. All signals have reversed: MVRV below 1, NUPL negative, aSOPR below 1. This is where cycles reset and the next accumulation begins.
MVRV < 1 NUPL < 0 aSOPR < 1
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Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin tops are not random — they are visible in on-chain and market data weeks before the final price peak
  • MVRV Z-Score above 7, NUPL above 0.75, and sustained aSOPR above 1.10 are the three highest-conviction on-chain top signals
  • No single signal is reliable in isolation — look for at least 4 of 7 signals firing simultaneously
  • BTC dominance falling sharply below 45% historically marks late-cycle alt mania — a coincident top signal
  • The NHCI Score synthesizes all 37 indicators into a single reading — the NeverHodl™ zone (75+) has historically aligned with the highest-risk part of each cycle