What is the MVRV Ratio?
MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value. Market Value is Bitcoin's current market cap - price times circulating supply. Realized Value is calculated by pricing each bitcoin at the last price it moved on-chain, then summing all of them. The ratio between the two tells you whether the market is overvalued or undervalued relative to what holders actually paid.
When MVRV is above 3.5, the average holder is sitting on more than 250% profit - historically a distribution zone. When MVRV drops below 1, the market is trading below what holders paid on average - historically a floor zone. The BTC NHCI Score tracks MVRV Z-Score continuously as one of its 37 indicators.
What MVRV has signalled historically
In every Bitcoin cycle since 2012, MVRV crossing above 3.5 has preceded a major correction within weeks. In November 2021, MVRV reached 3.8 before Bitcoin dropped 75% over the following year. In December 2018, MVRV hit 0.7 - the lowest reading ever - marking what became the absolute cycle bottom.
The current MVRV Z-Score of - places the market in the Accumulation zone of the NHCI framework - above the panic floor, but well below historical distribution territory.
The 4 MVRV zones you need to know
Market trading below realized value. Every prior instance has marked a cycle bottom.
Moderate profitability. Smart money historically builds positions here.
◂ Current zoneRising unrealized profits. Momentum confirmed but risk increasing.
Extreme unrealized profits. Every prior instance led to major correction.
The current MVRV Z-Score (-) places the market in the Accumulation zone - above the panic floor, well below distribution territory. The BTC NHCI Score combines MVRV with 36 other indicators for a complete cycle reading.
See full BTC NHCI analysis →How MVRV fits into the NHCI Score
The NHCI Score uses MVRV Z-Score - a normalized version that adjusts for Bitcoin's growth over time - as one of its primary on-chain anchors. It carries significant weight in the model because of its historical accuracy across all 4 complete cycles.
However, MVRV alone is not enough. A single indicator can give false signals during unusual market conditions. The NHCI combines MVRV with 36 other indicators - including NUPL, aSOPR, Exchange Flow, and macro signals - to produce a more robust reading. The current BTC NHCI Score (v3.1) reflects all 37 inputs simultaneously.
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Key takeaways
- MVRV compares market cap to realized cap
- Below 1: historically a cycle floor
- Above 3.5: historically a distribution zone
- Current MVRV Z-Score: - (Accumulation zone)
- The NHCI Score uses MVRV as one of 37 indicators
Having traded several full cycles, I read MVRV as a temperature gauge, not a trigger. Below 1 it has flagged the deepest floors; above 3.7 it has marked froth. What I trust most is the extremes: the middle is noisy and easy to over-interpret. Realized cap can drift, so no single reading is destiny. Bitcoin stays my long-term conviction. MVRV only tells me where in the cycle we likely stand, so I size risk to the phase, never to hype.
Frequently asked questions
What is the MVRV ratio in Bitcoin?
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is the ratio between Bitcoin's current market cap and its realized cap - the sum of all BTC valued at their last transaction price. An MVRV above 3.7 has historically marked cycle tops; below 1 has marked cycle bottoms.
What does an MVRV above 3.7 mean?
An MVRV above 3.7 means the average Bitcoin holder is sitting on 370% unrealized profit. Historically this level has coincided with Bitcoin cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 - it signals that selling pressure from long-term holders is likely to increase.
What MVRV value is a good Bitcoin buy signal?
An MVRV below 1.0 means most Bitcoin holders are underwater on their position - a condition that has historically marked major cycle bottoms. Every time MVRV has dropped below 1 in Bitcoin's history, it has preceded a significant bull market.
How does NeverHodl use MVRV in the NHCI Score?
NeverHodl incorporates MVRV as one of 37 on-chain and market indicators that make up the NHCI Score. Rather than using MVRV alone, the NHCI aggregates it with NUPL, SOPR, funding rates, and other signals to produce a single 0–100 score representing where Bitcoin is in its market cycle.
What is the difference between MVRV and NUPL?
MVRV compares total market cap to realized cap, giving a ratio. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) measures what percentage of the total market cap is unrealized profit or loss. Both track holder profitability but from different angles - using them together improves signal accuracy.