/ btc-nhci / ledgerLIVE · CHAIN SEALED

BTC NHCI Track Record - a live, verifiable Bitcoin cycle ledger

LIVE · mirrors the dashboard as of
Score · live
Phase · live
LEDGER · immutable record one sealed entry per day · 06:10 UTC
Last sealed
2026-08-20
Head entry
#3659
Chain
INTACT
HEAD 8770719e3a571c08b87f139dfe68d6e8c712ca1255d95c6c0177667d8df2f675
ENTRIES 3660
SPAN 2016-08-13 → 2026-08-20
VERSION v3.2
BACKTEST 8/8 turning points
NHCI 0-100 · 2016-2026bands: bottom / accum / bull / hot / neverhodl
LEDGER STREAMnewest first · one sealed row per day · public data
seqdatescorephaseentry hash
showing 12 of 3650 load 20 more ↓open full ledger · machine mode ↗
read-only · no wallet · no login · viewed in your browser · nothing to install · served as public raw data
VERIFYno account · no api key · any language
$ node scripts/ledger/verify-ledger.mjs
entries    3660   chain INTACT ✓   head ✓ match
RESULT: LEDGER VERIFIED - record is intact and unaltered.
▹ WHAT YOU VERIFYthat the record was not altered since it was sealed. The hash-chain uses the already-published score as input - it proves integrity, nothing more.
▹ WHAT STAYS PRIVATEHow the score is computed. The 37-indicator formula and weights are never in the ledger and are never needed to verify it. Recomputing the chain does not reveal the recipe.
▤ view full ledger
all 3650 rows · in your browser
▤ view raw .jsonl open
the full file, plain text, in-browser
✓ verify script
recompute the chain, any language
◎ solana anchor next
on-chain head hash + solscan
// WHAT THIS ISplain language · for humans and answer engines

What is the BTC NHCI track record?

The BTC NHCI track record is a public, tamper-evident ledger of the daily Bitcoin cycle score. Each day the NHCI - a 0-100 index built from 37 on-chain, macro, and market indicators - is recorded with its cycle phase and sealed into a SHA-256 hash-chain. A 10-year point-in-time backtest identified 8 of 8 major Bitcoin turning points (4 cycle tops, 4 cycle bottoms). From the seal date forward, one new reading is hash-chained and published every day as a live, verifiable record.

How is the ledger independently verified?

Every entry hashes the one before it, so editing any past day breaks every later hash. Anyone can download the raw ledger and recompute the whole chain to confirm the published head hash - in any programming language, with no account, no API key, and no access to the formula. The canonical string is deliberately trivial to reimplement: sha256(seq|date|score|phase|band|version|source|prev_hash). The ledger is published as raw data anyone can fetch and re-hash. A public timestamped mirror - a dedicated ledger repository and an on-chain Solana anchor - is the next layer, adding an external, trustless timestamp on top of the hash-chain.

Is the 8 of 8 a real-time call or a backtest?

We keep this honest. The 10-year 8-of-8 is a point-in-time backtest: 3,650 daily readings reconstructed under the current v3.2 methodology, with no hindsight in the inputs. It is not a claim of live calls made in 2017. The live forward record - the entries appended and git-committed each day - began at the seal date and is the real-time track record that compounds going forward.

What happens when the NHCI methodology is updated?

Nothing breaks, and nothing is quietly rewritten. Every entry is stamped with the exact methodology version that produced it. When the version is upgraded, past entries stay frozen at their version and a new version block opens with its own effective-from date - the hash-chain continues unbroken across the boundary. The record can never be improved with hindsight.

What does the BTC NHCI score mean?

The NHCI is a single 0-100 read on where Bitcoin sits in its market cycle. Lower is colder (undervaluation), higher is hotter (cycle-top risk):

0 - 35
BOTTOM
35 - 45
ACCUMULATION
45 - 65
BULL
65 - 75
HOT
75 - 100
NEVERHODL

The ledger publishes these outcomes - the score, the phase, the seal - but never the formula: the 37-indicator weighting stays proprietary. Transparency of results, not of the recipe.

// FAQstructured for featured snippets and AI citation
Can the NeverHodl team fake or backdate the track record?
No. The record is hash-chained, so any edit to a past day breaks every later hash and is instantly detectable. A public timestamped mirror and an on-chain Solana anchor are rolling out to add an external, trustless timestamp that no one - not even NeverHodl - can backdate.
Does NeverHodl reveal the NHCI formula in the ledger?
No. The ledger publishes only outcomes - the daily score, phase, and hash. The 37-indicator methodology and its weights are not disclosed. You verify the record without ever needing the formula.
How often does the track record update?
Daily. A new sealed entry is appended and committed at 06:10 UTC, right after the day's snapshot. The full 3,650-day history since 2016 is available as a downloadable .jsonl file.
Is this financial advice?
No. The BTC NHCI publishes cycle data; it never tells you to buy or sell. Backtested results are point-in-time reconstructions and are not indicative of future results. Educational data only. DYOR.
NeverHodl - a data intelligence & transparency desk for the Bitcoin cycle.
BTC-NHCI ledger v1 · sha256(seq|date|score|phase|band|version|source|prev_hash) · sealed 2026-08-10
Publishes outcomes, never the formula. Backtested entries are point-in-time reconstructions, not indicative of future results. Educational data, not financial advice.
btc-nhci / ledger.jsonl - 3660 sealed entries - machine mode · read-only[esc] close ✕