What is NUPL?
NUPL stands for Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. It is calculated by taking the difference between Bitcoin's Market Cap and its Realized Cap, then dividing by the Market Cap. The result is a number between -1 and 1 that tells you what fraction of the total market is sitting on unrealized profit or loss.
A NUPL reading above 0.75 means the market is in euphoria - historically every prior reading above 0.75 preceded a major top. A reading below 0 means the market is in net loss - historically the rarest and most opportunity-rich zone. The BTC NHCI Score tracks NUPL continuously as one of its 37 indicators. Current NUPL: -.
What NUPL has signalled historically
In every Bitcoin cycle since 2012, NUPL crossing above 0.75 (euphoria territory) has preceded a major correction within weeks to months. In November 2021, NUPL reached 0.74 just before Bitcoin dropped 75%. In December 2018, NUPL turned negative - meaning the market was in net loss - marking the absolute cycle bottom. Each cycle has shown this pattern with remarkable consistency.
The current NUPL reading of - places the market in the Accumulation zone of the NHCI framework - above the panic floor, but well below historical distribution territory.
The 5 NUPL zones you need to know
Market in net loss. Every prior instance has marked a cycle bottom. Historically the rarest and most opportunity-rich zone.
Moderate profitability. Market recovering confidence. Smart money historically builds positions here.
◂ Current zoneRising unrealized profits. Momentum confirmed. Risk increasing as market becomes overextended.
Extreme unrealized profits. Every prior instance above 0.75 preceded a major top and correction.
The current NUPL reading (-) places the market in the Hope/Accumulation zone - above net loss territory, well below euphoria. The BTC NHCI Score combines NUPL with 36 other indicators for a complete cycle reading.
See how NUPL fits the live BTC NHCI Score →How NUPL fits into the NHCI Score
The BTC NHCI Score uses NUPL as one of its primary on-chain anchors. It carries significant weight in the model because of its historical accuracy across all 4 complete cycles since 2012. NUPL complements MVRV by measuring aggregate sentiment rather than just the market-to-realized ratio.
However, NUPL alone is not enough. It can remain elevated for extended periods during strong bull markets, giving premature signals. The NHCI combines NUPL with 36 other indicators - including MVRV, aSOPR, Exchange Flow, and macro signals - to produce a more robust reading. The current BTC NHCI Score (v3.1) reflects all 37 inputs simultaneously.
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Key takeaways
- NUPL = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) / Market Cap
- Below 0: market in net loss - historically a cycle floor
- Above 0.75: euphoria - historically precedes major tops
- Current NUPL: - (Hope/Accumulation zone)
- The BTC NHCI Score uses NUPL as one of its 13 primary indicators
I read NUPL as a temperature gauge, not a timer. When it sits near capitulation, below 0, I have learned to lean into the cycle rather than fear it - those zones have paid the patient in past cycles. When it pushes toward euphoria above 0.75, I get more careful about position size, because froth compresses future upside. The caveat: NUPL can stay stretched longer than feels reasonable, so I never treat one line as a full signal. Combine it with MVRV and SOPR.
Frequently asked questions
What is NUPL in Bitcoin?
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) measures the ratio of unrealized profit minus unrealized loss relative to Bitcoin's total market cap. A NUPL above 0.75 indicates euphoria - most holders are deeply profitable - which has historically coincided with cycle tops.
What does NUPL above 0.75 mean?
NUPL above 0.75 means more than 75% of Bitcoin's market cap represents unrealized profit. This euphoria zone has appeared at every major Bitcoin cycle top including 2013, 2017, and 2021. It signals extreme greed and a high risk of a significant price reversal.
What is a negative NUPL?
Negative NUPL means the average Bitcoin holder is at a loss - unrealized losses exceed unrealized profits. This capitulation zone (NUPL below 0) has historically marked the deepest bear market bottoms and offered the highest long-term risk/reward entry points.
What are the NUPL zones for Bitcoin?
NUPL has five zones: Capitulation (below 0), Hope/Fear (0–0.25), Optimism/Anxiety (0.25–0.5), Belief/Denial (0.5–0.75), and Euphoria/Greed (above 0.75). Each zone corresponds to a different stage of the Bitcoin market cycle.
How reliable is NUPL as a Bitcoin signal?
NUPL has correctly identified every major Bitcoin cycle top and bottom since 2011. It works best combined with other on-chain indicators like MVRV and SOPR. NeverHodl includes NUPL as one of 37 signals in the NHCI Score to reduce false positives from any single indicator.