What does an NHCI Score of 35 mean?

An NHCI Score of 35 places Bitcoin at the boundary between the BOTTOM zone (0-35) and the ACCUMULATION zone (35-45). At this level, on-chain metrics suggest undervaluation. Historically, scores below 35 have coincided with Bitcoin's deepest capitulation points: December 2018 ($3,200), March 2020 ($4,000), and November 2022 ($15,600).

What does a NHCI Score above 75 mean?

An NHCI Score above 75 enters the NeverHodl™ zone — cycle top territory where multiple cycle-top indicators fire simultaneously. Historically, scores above 65 (HOT + NeverHodl zones) have coincided with major price peaks. The NHCI entered NeverHodl zone 18 days before the April 2021 local top ($58,000) and HOT zone 24 days before the October 2025 all-time high ($126,198).

How often is the NHCI Score updated?

The NHCI Score is updated every hour. It is available live on the NeverHodl dashboard and via the public API at https://www.neverhodl.com/api/public/nhci (no authentication required, 20 requests per minute per IP).

What is the difference between BTC NHCI and Crypto NHCI?

The BTC NHCI Score measures Bitcoin's position in its own market cycle using 37 on-chain, macro, and market indicators. The Crypto NHCI Score measures overall crypto market interest and risk appetite using a separate engine that incorporates total crypto market cap, ETH/BTC ratio, DeFi TVL, DEX volume, stablecoin dominance, and macro regime signals (M2, VIX, Fed balance sheet). Both use the same 0-to-100 scale.

How is the NHCI different from the Fear and Greed Index?

The Fear & Greed Index uses 6 sentiment signals updated daily. The NHCI uses 37 signals across 6 categories — on-chain fundamentals, global macro liquidity (8 central banks), market structure, FX and stablecoins, and holder behavior — updated every hour. The NHCI also includes DescentGuard and InstitutionalTopRisk overlays that detect bear market descents and cycle top distribution patterns that sentiment-only tools cannot identify.

Where can I see the current NHCI Score?

Live at https://www.neverhodl.com/dashboard. Via API (no auth required): GET https://www.neverhodl.com/api/public/nhci — returns BTC score, phase, signal, Crypto NHCI score, BTC price, Fear & Greed, and BTC dominance.

What is the NHCI Score? Bitcoin Cycle Index 0-100

Live Score

Current Bitcoin Cycle Position

The NHCI Score updates every hour. The live score is available free — no account required.

BTC NHCI SCORE — LIVE

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0 BOTTOM 35 45 65 75 100 NH™

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"In every Bitcoin bear market bottom since 2018, the NHCI Score dropped below 35 before the recovery began. At the opposite end, in every major cycle top since 2017, the NHCI Score entered HOT or NeverHodl™ zones (65+) before the price peak."

Five Phases

Reading the Score Scale

The NHCI scale is divided into five phases. Each phase corresponds to a distinct market condition with historically different risk/reward profiles for Bitcoin investors.

0–35

BOTTOM

Deep capitulation zone. On-chain metrics show extreme undervaluation. Long-term holders have stopped selling. Historically the highest-return entry zone for Bitcoin.

Signal: ACCUMULATE · Risk/reward: Highest historically

Historical examples: Dec 2018 ($3,200) · Mar 2020 ($4,000) · Nov 2022 ($15,600) · Q1 2026

35–45

ACCUMULATION

Recovery phase. Smart money accumulating. Market sentiment still fearful but on-chain data shows supply moving from weak to strong hands. Strong risk/reward entry window.

Signal: ACCUMULATE · Risk/reward: Strong

Historical examples: Jan 2023 · Q1 2019 · May–Jun 2020

45–65

BULL ACTIVE

Sustained uptrend in progress. Broad participation increasing. Standard buy-and-hold zone. Risk/reward still positive but upside is gradually being priced in.

Signal: HOLD · Risk/reward: Moderate to positive

Historical examples: 2019 recovery · Late 2020 · 2023–2024 cycle

65–75

HOT ZONE

Overheated. Greed dominant. Risk/reward deteriorating. Partial profit-taking is appropriate. Multiple indicators signaling elevated cycle risk without confirmed top yet.

Signal: CAUTION · Risk/reward: Deteriorating

Historical examples: Feb–Mar 2021 · Aug–Sep 2021 · Sep–Oct 2025

75–100

NEVERHODL™

Cycle top territory. Multiple cycle-top indicators firing simultaneously. Historical sell zone. The name "NeverHodl" comes from this zone: the one time you should NOT hold.

Signal: REDUCE · Risk/reward: Historically highest downside risk

Historical examples: Apr 2021 (78) · Nov 2021 (81)

Right Now

See strategies for this phase →

Comparison

NHCI vs Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index is the most widely used Bitcoin sentiment tool. The NHCI is built on a fundamentally different premise: sentiment alone is insufficient for cycle timing.

Metric	Fear & Greed Index	NeverHodl NHCI
Number of indicators	6	37 6x more
Update frequency	Daily	Hourly 24x faster
On-chain data	Partial (volume)	Full (MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, LTH-SOPR, Reserve Risk…)
Macro liquidity	None	8 central banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE, PBoC…)
Bear descent detection	No	Yes (DescentGuard overlay)
Cycle top detection	No	Yes (InstitutionalTopRisk overlay)
Documented track record	Not documented	8/8 major turning points since 2017
Public API	Yes	Yes (no auth, 20 req/min)
Free to use	Yes	Yes

"Fear & Greed is the daily weather report. NeverHodl NHCI is the climate map. One tells you how the market feels today. The other tells you where the cycle stands."

Track Record

Every Major Bitcoin Turning Point Since 2017

The NHCI has been backtested against 9 years of Bitcoin data (3,411 days, January 2017 – May 2026) and has correctly identified all 8 major cycle turning points.

Date	Event	NHCI Signal	BTC Price	Outcome
Dec 2018	Bear market bottom	BOTTOM (score ~28)	$3,200	+125% in 12mo · +2,056% full cycle ✓
Mar 2020	COVID crash bottom	BOTTOM (score ~25)	$4,000	+1,350% in 18 months ✓
Apr 2021	Local cycle top	NEVERHODL™ (~78), 18d early	$58,000	-53% in 3 months ✓
Nov 2021	Cycle ATH	NEVERHODL™ (~81), 12d early	$69,000	-75% in 12 months ✓
Nov 2022	FTX crash bottom	BOTTOM (score ~32)	$15,600	+137% in 12 months ✓
Jan 2023	Recovery confirmation	ACCUMULATION	$17,000	Recovery confirmed ✓
Oct 2025	Cycle ATH $126,198	HOT ZONE (~70), 24d early	$103K	ATH → -30% ✓
Q1 2026	Correction low	BOTTOM (score ~28)	See live chart	Recovery phase began ✓

Public API

Access the NHCI Score Programmatically

The NHCI Score is available via a free public API — no authentication required. Use it to integrate Bitcoin cycle intelligence into your own tools, bots, or dashboards.

ENDPOINT

GET https://www.neverhodl.com/api/public/nhci

KEY RESPONSE FIELDS

btc.score — BTC NHCI Score (0–100, float, updated hourly)

btc.phase — Cycle phase (Bottom / Accumulation / Bull Active / Hot Zone / NeverHodl™)

btc.signal — Trading signal (ACCUMULATE / HOLD / CAUTION / REDUCE)

btc.context.descent_guard — Bear descent warning (string or null)

crypto.score — Crypto NHCI Score (overall crypto market interest)

market.btc_price_usd — Current BTC price (Kraken)

market.fear_greed.value — Fear & Greed index (Alternative.me)

Rate limit: 20 requests/minute per IP · No authentication required · Open CORS

What is the NHCI Score?

Current Bitcoin Cycle Position

Reading the Score Scale

NHCI vs Fear & Greed Index

Every Major Bitcoin Turning Point Since 2017

Access the NHCI Score Programmatically

See the Live Score