O que e o Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple is an on-chain indicator that measures the ratio between daily miner revenue (in USD) and the 365-day moving average of daily miner revenue. It was created by David Puell and later popularized through Glassnode, one of the leading on-chain analytics platforms.
The formula is straightforward: Puell Multiple = Daily Miner Revenue (USD) / 365-Day Moving Average of Daily Miner Revenue (USD). Miner revenue includes both block rewards (newly minted BTC) and transaction fees. Since all of this data lives on the Bitcoin blockchain, it is fully transparent and verifiable.
In simple terms: the Puell Multiple tells you whether miners are earning significantly more or less than their yearly average. A value of 1.0 means miners are earning exactly their yearly average. Below 1.0, they are earning less. Above 1.0, they are earning more.
Por que a receita dos mineradores importa? Os mineradores são a espinha dorsal da segurança do Bitcoin. Quando a sua receita cai significativamente abaixo da media anual, sinaliza estresse economico - alguns mineradores podem encerrar operações, reduzir hash rate ou vender as suas reservas de BTC para cobrir custos. Estas são condições que históricamente coincidem com fundos de ciclo.
Como Ler o Puell Multiple - Tres Zonas
O Puell Multiple divide-se em tres zonas baseadas no comportamento histórico. Estes limiares foram validados ao longo de cada ciclo do Bitcoin desde 2010:
Os mineradores ganham menos de metade da sua media anual. Estresse economico severo - alguns mineradores capitulam e vendem reservas. Historicamente, esta zona coincidiu com cada fundo importante de ciclo. Leituras extremamente raras.
Os mineradores ganham dentro de um intervalo normal relativo a sua media anual. Sem sinal extremo. A maior parte do tempo, o Puell Multiple situa-se nesta zona durante condições de mercado saudaveis.
Os mineradores ganham 4x ou mais acima da sua media anual. Euforia - rentabilidade extrema atrai excesso de pressão de venda de mineradores a realizar lucros. Historicamente, esta zona coincidiu com os topos de ciclo.
Today's reading: Puell Multiple 0.530 - just above the green zone threshold. Miners are earning only 53% of their yearly average, indicating significant revenue pressure. This is the type of condition that has historically aligned with accumulation zones.
Puell Multiple nos Ciclos do Bitcoin - Dados Históricos
O Puell Multiple rastreou cada extremo importante de ciclo do Bitcoin desde 2010. Aqui estão as leituras em momentos-chave - todos de dados reais ao longo de 5.986 pontos de dados diarios:
| Data | Puell Multiple | Zona | Contexto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2017 | 6.312 | VERMELHO - TOPO EXTREMO | ATH - mineradores ganhando 6.3x acima da media anual |
| Dec 2018 | 0.304 | VERDE - FUNDO PROFUNDO | Fundo do bear market - mineradores mal rentaveis |
| Mar 2020 | 0.525 | VERDE - ZONA DE FUNDO | Crash COVID - venda massiva em todos os mercados |
| Apr 2021 | 3.223 | NEUTRO - SOBREAQUECIDO | Topo local - mineradores ganhando 3.2x acima da media |
| Nov 2021 | 1.642 | NEUTRO - TOPO DE CICLO | ATH - pico mais baixo que 2017 (retornos decrescentes) |
| Jun 2022 | 0.428 | VERDE - FUNDO PROFUNDO | Crash Luna/Terra - capitulação de mineradores |
| Nov 2022 | 0.466 | VERDE - FUNDO PROFUNDO | Colapso FTX - contagio generalizado |
| Oct 2025 | 1.125 | NEUTRO - TOPO MODERADO | ATH - euforia moderada de mineradores |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 0.530 | ZONA DE FUNDO | ATUAL - mineradores sob pressão |
Fontes: Glassnode, base de dados NeverHodl (5.986 dados desde 2010)Key insight: the Puell Multiple peak has been declining each cycle. December 2017 hit 6.312. November 2021 peaked at only 1.642. October 2025 reached just 1.125. This pattern of diminishing peaks reflects Bitcoin's maturing market structure - each cycle produces less extreme miner euphoria as the market grows.
Puell Multiple + NHCI - Como Funcionam Juntos
NeverHodl uses the Puell Multiple as one of 37 indicators in the BTC NHCI Score. The Puell Multiple falls under the on-chain/mining category - it captures miner economic health, which is a fundamentally different dimension from price momentum (RSI), holder behavior (SOPR), or market sentiment (Fear & Greed).
The power of the NHCI is in multi-signal confluence. When the Puell Multiple is in the bottom zone AND other on-chain, technical, and sentiment indicators confirm the same signal - the confidence increases dramatically. Right now, the Puell Multiple at 0.530 is confirming what other indicators are also showing: the market is in a bottom zone.
When multiple independent indicators all point to the same condition simultaneously, the probability of a meaningful reading increases. This is the core principle behind the NHCI: no single indicator drives the score. All 37 must be evaluated together.
O Puell Multiple e apenas um de 37 indicadores. Veja todos eles - ao vivo, atualizados a cada hora - no Dashboard da NeverHodl. Sem conta necessaria.
Ver Dashboard ao Vivo →Leitura Atual: 0.530 - O Que Significa
At 0.530, the Puell Multiple is telling us that Bitcoin miners are earning only 53% of their 365-day average revenue. This places the current reading just above the green zone threshold of 0.5 - a level that has historically marked accumulation opportunities.
Para contexto, aqui esta como a leitura atual se compara com leituras anteriores de zona de fundo:
O Puell Multiple atual de 0.530 e comparável com a leitura do crash COVID de marco de 2020 de 0.525. Ambas as leituras refletem uma compressão severa da receita dos mineradores. Os dados mostram um padrão claro: cada vez que o Puell Multiple se apróximou ou entrou na zona verde, uma recuperação significativa se seguiu - embora o timing tenha variado de semanas a meses.
The data shows the pattern. What happens next is not guaranteed. The Puell Multiple identifies conditions - not timing. It tells you that miners are under stress, not when the stress will end. Historical correlation is not causation, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Limitações do Puell Multiple
O Puell Multiple e uma métrica on-chain valiosa, mas tem limitações importantes:
- Halvings distort the signal. Bitcoin's block reward halving events (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) cut daily miner revenue in half overnight. This creates a temporary artificial drop in the Puell Multiple that is not driven by market conditions but by protocol mechanics. The 365-day average takes months to adjust.
- The indicator can stay depressed for months. During prolonged bear markets, the Puell Multiple can remain near or below 0.5 for extended periods. It identifies a zone, not a precise turning point.
- Diminishing cycle peaks change the thresholds. The Dec 2017 peak hit 6.312 but the Nov 2021 peak was only 1.642. The traditional >4.0 red zone may become less relevant as Bitcoin matures. Future cycles may require adjusted thresholds.
- Never use a single indicator. The Puell Multiple captures one dimension - miner economics. It does not account for momentum, sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, or holder behavior. This is exactly why the NHCI aggregates 37 indicators across 6 categories.
Perguntas Frequentes
O que significa um Puell Multiple de 0.53 para o Bitcoin?
Um Puell Multiple de 0.53 significa que os mineradores de Bitcoin atualmente ganham apenas 53% da sua receita media de 365 dias. Isto indica que os mineradores estão sob pressão economica significativa - operando perto ou abaixo dos limiares de rentabilidade. Historicamente, as leituras do Puell Multiple abaixo de 0.5 coincidiram com fundos importantes de ciclo (dez 2018 em 0.304, jun 2022 em 0.428, nov 2022 em 0.466). Uma leitura de 0.53 situa-se logo acima da zona de fundo profundo, sinalizando que o estresse da receita dos mineradores esta elevado mas ainda não atingiu os níveis de capitulação extrema vistos em bear markets anteriores.
Um Puell Multiple baixo e um sinal de compra?
A low Puell Multiple is a bottom-zone signal, not a buy signal. There is a critical difference. When the Puell Multiple drops below 0.5, it indicates miner revenue is severely depressed relative to the yearly average - a condition historically associated with cycle bottoms. However, the indicator can remain in the bottom zone for weeks or months before a recovery materializes. The most reliable approach is combining the Puell Multiple with other indicators - such as MVRV, SOPR, RSI, and sentiment data - to confirm whether depressed miner revenue aligns with broader cycle positioning. The NeverHodl NHCI Score does exactly this, aggregating the Puell Multiple with 36 other indicators.
Como a NeverHodl usa o Puell Multiple?
A NeverHodl incorpora o Puell Multiple como um de 37 indicadores on-chain, técnicos e macroeconomicos no NHCI Score. O Puell Multiple enquadra-se na categoria on-chain/mineracao. Em vez de agir apenas com o Puell Multiple, o motor NHCI normaliza o Puell Multiple junto com indicadores como MVRV, SOPR, RSI, Fear & Greed, funding rates e dados de liquidez macro para produzir um único score composto de 0-100. Quando multiplos indicadores confirmam o mesmo sinal - a confiança na leitura aumenta significativamente.
Quem criou o Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple was created by David Puell, a crypto analyst and researcher. It was later popularized and made widely accessible through Glassnode, a leading on-chain analytics platform. The indicator leverages the transparency of the Bitcoin blockchain - since all miner revenue (block rewards + transaction fees) is publicly verifiable - to create a reliable measure of miner economic health relative to historical norms. NeverHodl tracks the Puell Multiple using data going back to 2010, comprising over 5,986 daily data points.
Metodologia → · API ao Vivo → · Atribuição de Dados →
Disclaimer: This is educational content based on publicly available data, not financial advice. NeverHodl™ does not recommend buying or selling any asset. The NHCI Score is an analytical tool - not a trading signal. The Puell Multiple is an on-chain indicator that measures miner revenue dynamics, not a prediction of future price. Always do your own research (DYOR). Past performance does not guarantee future results.