Quadro NHCI
The NHCI score dropped 7.3 points this week but remains firmly in Accumulation territory (35–45). This is the zone where historically, smart money builds positions quietly while retail sentiment remains cautious. The drop reflects a healthy cooldown, not a trend reversal.
O Que Moveu o Mercado
- Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% - market prices 1–2 additional cuts by Q4 2026. Dovish tone in the statement.
- DXY fell to 104.2 - weakening dollar is historically favorable for risk assets including BTC.
- US CPI at 3.1% - slight decline from 3.2%. Disinflation trend intact but slow.
- BTC ETF inflows: +$1.2B net this week - 4th consecutive week of positive flows. BlackRock IBIT leading.
- Funding rates neutral (0.01%) - no excessive leverage. Clean market structure.
- BTC dominance: 59.1% - holding above 59% suggests alt rotation hasn't started yet. BTC-first cycle phase.
Pulso On-Chain
Inspirado na metodologia da Glassnode Insights
- MVRV 1.47 - undervalued zone. As noted by on-chain analysts, MVRV below 1.5 has preceded every major rally since 2015. The last time we were here was December 2022, before the +660% move.
- NUPL 0.32 - holders in moderate profit, no euphoria. This reading historically corresponds to the early-to-mid accumulation phase.
- Exchange outflows continue - net negative for 3 consecutive weeks. Less BTC available on exchanges means less sell pressure.
All three on-chain categories confirm what the NHCI score is showing: accumulation phase without signs of overheating. The convergence between MVRV, NUPL, and exchange flows makes this one of the cleanest accumulation setups in the current cycle.
Contexto do Ciclo - Onde Estamos?
Comparação histórica entre ciclos de mercado Bitcoin
We are on day 937 since the last cycle bottom (November 2022, FTX crash). Here's where the NHCI was at the same point in previous cycles:
O score atual (43) é consistente com a fase de transição acumulação-bull vista em ambos os ciclos anteriores. Em 2018, o score era 38 neste ponto e o BTC posteriormente subiu +200% nos 12 meses seguintes. Em 2022, o score era mais alto (52) mas o ambiente macro era diferente.
O Que Vigiar na Próxima Semana
A Tese
A tese de alta mantém-se intacta enquanto o score se mantiver abaixo de 55.
The accumulation phase historically lasts 2–6 months. We are in week 1. Patience is the edge. The data confirms institutional positioning, declining exchange supply, and a macro environment tilting toward risk-on. There is no rush - the cycle rewards those who act on data, not emotion.
What would change this: score crossing 65 without a pullback, sudden CPI spike, or a macro shock (geopolitical, banking stress).
A Visão NeverHodl™
O ruído diz "mercado chato." Os dados dizem "acumulação em progresso." A cada ciclo, esta fase parece que nada está a acontecer - até que acontece. O NHCI está em 43. O on-chain está verde. O macro inclina-se favorável. Este não é o momento de perseguir. Este é o momento de preparar.
Vê onde estamos no ciclo - todos os 37 indicadores, atualizados a cada hora, acesso gratuito.
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