Bitcoin Sostiene el Fondo Tras una Fed Hawkish - BTC NHCI 28.4 Entra en su 4ta Semana Mientras la Velocidad de 30 Dias Gira a Positivo

Sosteniendo el Fondo el Día Después de una Fed Hawkish: BTC Cerca de $64,350

Bitcoin comes through the Federal Reserve decision holding its ground. BTC trades near $64,350, down about −1.0% in 24 hours - a modest pullback after the Fed held rates but turned hawkish, keeping BTC inside the same compressed range it has held for weeks, and still ~49% below its $126,198 all-time high. The move after a major macro event is not capitulation; it is the kind of orderly repricing that follows a known catalyst, when desks adjust to a more restrictive rate path and reposition. The base has not broken.

Context sharpens the divergence: sentiment cracked harder than price. The hawkish Fed pushed the Fear & Greed Index down from 22 to 15 (deeper Extreme Fear), while the cycle structure firmed. A market that holds a compressed range and keeps accumulating on-chain while sentiment plunges to its lows is a textbook late-BOTTOM setup. The question NeverHodl tracks is not 'is this the bottom?' but 'is the structure of the data changing?' Across exchange flows, spent-output behavior and the cycle score, it has held - for four weeks running, and now through the Fed.

Fuentes: CoinGecko, DeFiLlama

On-Chain: 1,815 BTC Salen de los Exchanges Mientras los Vendedores Siguen en Break-Even

Underneath the price, the chain is telling the same consistent story it has told for weeks - and it did not flinch at the hawkish Fed. In the latest session a net 1,815 BTC left centralized exchanges - coins moving toward self-custody and cold storage, reducing the supply immediately available to sell. SOPR and aSOPR both sit at 0.995, meaning the average coin being spent is changing hands just below its cost basis: the forced, at-a-loss selling that defines capitulation has already run its course. MVRV at 1.25 keeps market value only modestly above realized value - historically a deep-value reading - and NUPL at 0.201 sits in the low band where unrealized profit is thin and weak hands have already exited.

Indicador On-Chain	Lectura	Qué Señala
Exchange Net Flow	−1,815 BTC	Monedas saliendo de exchanges - acumulación
SOPR	0.995	Gasto cerca de break-even - capitulación cedió
aSOPR	0.995	SOPR ajustado confirma - vendedores agotados
MVRV	1.25	Zona de valor profundo - cerca del costo realizado
NUPL	0.201	Ganancia no realizada baja - manos débiles fuera

No single one of these is a signal on its own - but together they converge. Supply leaving exchanges, spending just under break-even, market value pinned near realized cost, and thin unrealized profit are the conditions that historically accompany the back half of a BOTTOM phase. None of this predicts a price. It describes a structure in which downside has become harder to manufacture, because the sellers who panic at a loss have largely already sold. NeverHodl reads this confluence the way it reads everything: as data, not as a recommendation.

Fuentes: Glassnode, CoinGecko

Bitcoin Lidera el Refugio: Dominancia en 56.1% Tras la Fed

With the Fed now behind it, capital stays concentrated in the asset it trusts most - and in crypto that means Bitcoin. BTC Dominance sits at 56.1%, elevated and steady. A hawkish surprise is exactly the kind of catalyst that keeps a market huddled in the majors rather than rotating down the risk curve: when the rate path turns more restrictive, the higher-beta names wait. There is no confirmed altcoin season here, and there should not be one yet - that rotation is a phenomenon for later in the cycle, once conviction broadens. BTC RSI at 42.4 is neutral, neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room to move in either direction from here.

Fuentes: CoinGecko, Kraken

Señal NHCI: 28.4 Aguanta una 4ta Semana Mientras la Velocidad de 30 Dias Gira a Positivo

The BTC NHCI holds at 28.4, firmly inside the BOTTOM phase (0-35) for a 4th consecutive week - versus a historical average of roughly six weeks in phase. But the detail that matters now is the slope. The 30-day velocity has turned positive for the first time in this bottom, at +3.4. That is the meaningful change: the decline has not just stalled, it has begun to firm. A negative-and-decelerating reading says the selling is exhausting; a positive reading says the structure has started to build back. Because the NHCI weighs dozens of on-chain, macro and market inputs, neither a one-day price pullback nor a hawkish Fed pushed it lower - which is precisely the point. It measures cycle structure, not price action alone. A sustained push toward 35 would mark the transition from BOTTOM toward ACCUMULATION; until then, the read is a market that has stopped deteriorating and started to firm.

Indicador	Lectura	Señal
BTC NHCI	28.4 / 100	ZONA FONDO - 4ª SEM · VEL 30D +3.4
Crypto NHCI	32.2 / 100	FONDO DE MERCADO AMPLIO
BTC Price	$64,350	−1.0% 24H · ~49% BAJO ATH
Exchange Net Flow	−1,815 BTC	SALIDA NETA - ACUMULACIÓN
Fear & Greed	15	MIEDO EXTREMO - SE PROFUNDIZÓ 22→15
BTC Dominance	56.1%	LIDERADO POR BTC - CAPITAL AÚN EN BTC

Fuentes: Glassnode, CoinGecko, DeFiLlama

Dry Powder y el Telón de Fondo Macro Tras la Decisión

Indicador	Lectura	Qué Señala
Stablecoin Supply	$285B	Dry powder al margen - capacidad de compra
BTC RSI (14d)	42.4	Neutral - espacio para moverse en ambos sentidos
US 10Y Yield	4.47%	El camino de tasas que la Fed hawkish acaba de inclinar
Recession Probability	44%	Elevada - eleva lo que está en juego tras la decisión

The market did not face the decision empty-handed, and it still does not. Roughly $285 billion in stablecoins sits on the sidelines - capital parked in dollar-pegged tokens that represents latent buying capacity, the dry powder that can re-enter risk quickly. The macro backdrop is taut: the US 10-year yield at 4.47% sits on the rate path the hawkish Fed just steepened, and a recession probability near 44% raises the stakes after the decision. None of this is a forecast. It is the board, as it stands: an oversold cycle, supply leaving exchanges, and meaningful dry powder waiting - after a decision whose response, not whose outcome, is what NeverHodl reads. And the response was telling: the data firmed even as sentiment fell.

Fuentes: DeFiLlama, FRED, CoinGecko

Después del FOMC - La Fed Mantuvo pero Giró Hawkish

On Wednesday, June 17, the Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% - its 4th consecutive hold, in a 12-0 vote at new Chair Kevin Warsh's debut meeting. The decision was hawkish: the updated dot plot raised the median end-2026 rate projection to 3.8% (from 3.4% in March), signaling at least one rate hike is now likely this year, with 9 of 18 participants expecting a hike. The Fed cited still-elevated inflation, partly tied to energy and supply shocks from Middle East tensions, alongside solid economic activity. Risk assets sold off modestly: Bitcoin slipped about 1%, Fear & Greed fell from 22 to 15, and the VIX rose to about 18. NeverHodl does not forecast outcomes - that is not what the score does. What it measured is how the data responded: on-chain accumulation continued and the NHCI firmed. The disciplined posture is the same one the score encodes every day: watch how the indicators respond, don't pre-commit to a narrative.

Fuentes: Reserva Federal, CoinGecko

Tesis NeverHodl: La Acumulación Es Silenciosa

Los techos son ruidosos y los fondos son silenciosos. El final de una tendencia bajista rara vez se anuncia con un titular - aparece primero en la cadena, en la oferta que deja de moverse hacia los exchanges y en los vendedores que se quedan sin monedas para vender a perdida. Esa es la foto de hoy, el dia despues de una Fed hawkish, aun cuando el indice Fear & Greed cayo a 15. Nada de esto garantiza un giro, pero tres cosas son ahora ciertas al mismo tiempo:

• The chain is accumulating. A net 1,815 BTC left exchanges, SOPR and aSOPR sit at 0.995, MVRV at 1.25 - capitulation has eased and supply keeps moving to cold storage.
• The decline has stalled and started to firm. The NHCI holds 28.4 - a 4th straight week in phase - and its 30-day velocity has turned positive (+3.4) for the first time in this bottom. Firming, not just stalling, even as sentiment fell to Extreme Fear at 15.
• FOMC was the test. The market's compressed, oversold base met its macro catalyst in a hawkish Fed - and the data firmed even as fear deepened to 15. The score did not predict it; it measured how the data responded.

The loud part of this cycle is over; the quiet part is where positions are built. Coins are leaving exchanges, sellers are spent, dry powder waits on the sidelines, and the cycle score has held its decline for a fourth week with 30-day velocity now turning positive - all while the headlines fell to Extreme Fear at 15, after a hawkish Fed. NeverHodl does not tell you to buy or sell. It shows you where the cycle is, today, in 28.4 - and lets the data make the case.

Disclaimer: This is market commentary based on publicly available data, not financial advice. NeverHodl™ does not recommend buying or selling any asset. The NHCI Score is an analytical tool - not a trading signal. Always do your own research (DYOR). Past performance does not guarantee future results.