Qué Pasó
Bitcoin recovered slightly to $62,834, now sitting 50.2% below its ATH of $126,198. The NHCI rose to 27.4 - up +1.30 points from yesterday's 26.1, marking the first meaningful uptick after 16 consecutive days in BOTTOM phase. This is the longest sustained compression of the current cycle. Fear & Greed recovered to 12 (up from 8 yesterday) - still Extreme Fear, but the first improvement after hitting cycle lows. BTC dominance sits at 56.28%.
Yesterday was CPI Day - the most anticipated macro release of the month. Today the market digests those numbers while awaiting PPI data (Producer Price Index), which provides the producer-side inflation confirmation the Fed watches closely. The SpaceX IPO is tomorrow (June 12) - the largest IPO in history. And the FOMC + dot plot is in 6 days (June 17). Three catalysts in three sequential days. The NHCI uptick suggests the market may be finding a floor, but confirmation requires sustained follow-through.
Fuentes: CoinGecko, Alternative.me, Bloomberg, NeverHodl NHCI APISeñal NHCI - 16 Días en FONDO, Primera Subida
The BTC NHCI Score sits at 27.4 - up from 26.1 yesterday, a +1.30 point increase. This marks the 16th consecutive day in BOTTOM phase (0-35 range) and the first back-to-back uptick of this cycle. The 30-day velocity reads -20.3, still negative but showing deceleration in the rate of decline. The score needs to sustain above 30 to signal a potential phase transition toward ACCUMULATION (35+). Extended BOTTOM phases histórically resolve with sharp directional moves - not gradual recovery.
| Indicador | Lectura | Señal |
|---|---|---|
| BTC NHCI | 27.4 / 100 | FASE FONDO - DÍA 16 · +1.30 PTS |
| Fear & Greed | 12 | MIEDO EXTREMO - SUBIÓ DE 8 AYER |
| BTC Price | $62,834 | -50.2% DESDE ATH ($126,198) |
| BTC Dominance | 56.28% | CONCENTRACIÓN DE CAPITAL EN BTC |
| RSI 14d | 24.7 | SOBREVENDIDO - DEBAJO DEL UMBRAL 30 |
| Velocity 30d | -20.3 | NEGATIVA - DESACELERANDO |
| BTC desde ATH | -50.2% | DESCUENTO PROFUNDO - ATH $126,198 |
| Macro Hoy | PPI | ÍNDICE DE PRECIOS AL PRODUCTOR - ALTO IMPACTO |
The NHCI uptick from 26.1 to 27.4 is the first back-to-back increase during this 16-day BOTTOM phase. Combined with Fear & Greed recovering from 8 to 12, the data suggests the most extreme phase of capitulation may be stabilizing - not reversing yet, but no longer deteriorating. The market needs PPI confirmation today and SpaceX IPO clarity tomorrow before direction is established. NHCI must sustain above 30 to signal phase transition. Data, not hope.
Análisis Post-CPI - Lo que Revelaron los Datos de Ayer
Yesterday's CPI release was the most anticipated macro data point of June. The market's reaction is now priced into today's numbers: BTC moved from $61,782 to $62,834, Fear & Greed recovered from 8 to 12, and NHCI ticked up +1.30 points. The question now shifts to PPI confirmation - does the producer-side data align with CPI? And critically, what does the combined CPI+PPI picture mean for FOMC on June 17?
- If PPI confirms cooling: The CPI+PPI double signal gives the Fed maximum flexibility at FOMC. Rate cut expectations would surge. The NHCI uptick could accelerate toward the 30-35 range. With RSI at 24.7 (deeply oversold) and Fear & Greed still at 12, the risk/reward skews heavily toward relief if inflation data is cooperating.
- If PPI contradicts (hot reading): A divergence between CPI and PPI creates confusion. The Fed faces mixed signals ahead of FOMC. Markets may stall in a holding pattern until June 17. NHCI could retrace to 25-26 territory. The SpaceX IPO tomorrow adds further complexity to an already fragmented macro picture.
Señales On-Chain - Signaturas de Capitulación Persisten
Las métricas on-chain continúan mostrando signaturas clásicas de capitulación a pesar de la recuperación de precios de hoy. La combinación de MVRV, NUPL, SOPR y flujos de exchange pinta una imagen de un mercado donde los participantes venden con pérdida mientras los holders de largo plazo absorben la oferta - la anatomía de libro de un fondo de ciclo.
| Métrica On-Chain | Lectura | Señal |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV Ratio | 1.159 | CERCA DEL VALOR JUSTO - DEBAJO DEL UMBRAL 1.5 |
| NUPL | 0.137 | ZONA ESPERANZA/MIEDO - BAJO BENEFICIO NO REALIZADO |
| SOPR | 0.981 | DEBAJO DE 1.0 - VENDEDORES REALIZANDO PÉRDIDAS |
| Flujo Exchange (neto) | +2,835.7 BTC | INFLUXOS NETOS - POTENCIAL PRESIÓN VENDEDORA |
| Funding Rate | 0.0025% | CASI NEUTRAL - BAJO APALANCAMIENTO |
| Open Interest | $28.4B | MODERADO - REDUCIDO DESDE MÁXIMOS |
| Stablecoin Supply | $285.3B | POLVO SECO - CAPITAL EN ESPERA |
Key takeaway: SOPR at 0.981 means the average on-chain transaction is realizing a 1.9% loss - sellers are capitulating at a loss, which is a classic bottom signature. Meanwhile, stablecoin supply at $285.3B represents significant sidelined capital waiting to re-enter. The +2,835.7 BTC in net exchange inflows signals ongoing sell pressure in the short term, but the funding rate at 0.0025% (near neutral) indicates leverage has been flushed - the market is not over-leveraged. This is the profile of exhaustion, not panic.
Fuentes: Glassnode, CoinGlass, CoinGecko, DeFiLlamaPanel Macro - DXY, Rendimientos, VIX, Liquidez
The macro environment continues to exert pressure on risk assets, though cracks are appearing in the tightening narrative. The DXY at 120.08 remains elevated - strong dollar headwinds persist for crypto. The US 10-Year yield at 4.53% reflects bonds pricing in continued restrictive policy, though any dovish FOMC signal on June 17 could trigger a rapid repricing. VIX at 19.9 - below the 20 fear threshold, suggesting equity markets are more complacent than crypto markets (where Fear & Greed is at 12).
| Indicador Macro | Lectura | Señal |
|---|---|---|
| DXY (Dollar Index) | 120.08 | ELEVADO - VIENTO EN CONTRA PARA CRYPTO |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.53% | RESTRICTIVO - ESPERANDO FOMC 17 JUNIO |
| VIX | 19.9 | DEBAJO DE 20 - ACCIONES COMPLACIENTES |
| Fed Balance Sheet | $6.71T | AJUSTE CUANTITATIVO CONTINÚA |
| US M2 Money Supply | $22,804.5B | ESTABLE - OBSERVANDO EXPANSIÓN |
La divergencia entre la volátilidad de acciones (VIX 19.9) y el sentimiento crypto (Fear & Greed 12) es notable. Los mercados de acciones no están descontando el mismo nivel de estrés que los mercados crypto experimentan. Esto podría significar: (a) crypto está sobrevendido relativo a las condiciones macro y debe un rally de convergencia, o (b) crypto está descontando riesgos que los mercados de acciones aún no reconocen. El FOMC del 17 de junio será el árbitro.
Fuentes: FRED, Bloomberg, TradingView, Tesoro de EE.UU.Qué Observar - PPI Hoy, SpaceX Mañana, FOMC 17 de Junio
Los próximos 6 días contienen tres de los catalizadores más significativos del Q2 2026. Cada uno independientemente podría mover los mercados 5-10%. Juntos, crean un guante macro sin precedente histórico:
- TODAY - PPI (Producer Price Index): The producer-side inflation reading. Confirms or contradicts yesterday's CPI. Check the economic calendar for exact release time. A cooling PPI + cooling CPI = strongest dovish signal before FOMC.
- TOMORROW (June 12) - SpaceX IPO: The largest IPO in history. Ticker SPCX. ~$1.75T valuation. ~$75B capital raise. Dual narrative: liquidity drain vs. risk-on catalyst. Net effect on crypto depends on whether it drains capital or boosts overall risk appetite.
- JUNE 17 - FOMC + Dot Plot: The Federal Reserve decision. The dot plot reveals rate path projections. With CPI and PPI data in hand, this is the first FOMC where the Fed can credibly signal direction. Any dovish shift would be a catalyst for the most compressed crypto market since November 2022.
Tesis NeverHodl - Primera Señal de Estabilización
The thesis remains intact: NHCI in BOTTOM phase represents the zone where maximum fear meets maximum opportunity in histórical data. Today's +1.30 point uptick - the first back-to-back increase in 16 days - is the earliest signal that the compression phase may be stabilizing. It is not a reversal signal. It is not a confirmation of a bottom. It is a data point showing the rate of deterioration has paused.
Lo que cambiaría la tesis: NHCI sostenido sobre 35 (salir de FONDO, entrar en ACUMULACIÓN). Lo que la invalidaría: NHCI debajo de 20 con SOPR sostenido debajo de 0.95 y influxos a exchanges superando 10,000 BTC/día. Lecturas actuales: NHCI 27.4, SOPR 0.981, influxos a exchanges +2,835.7 BTC. La tesis se mantiene. Los datos son tempranos. PPI hoy y SpaceX mañana determinarán si esta subida tiene continuidad.
Primera subida del NHCI en 16 días. Fear & Greed se recupera de 8 a 12. PPI hoy. IPO SpaceX mañana. FOMC en 6 días. SOPR on-chain debajo de 1.0 - vendedores realizando pérdidas. RSI en 24.7 - sobrevendido. Oferta de stablecoins en $285.3B - capital en espera. La compresión FONDO más larga de este ciclo muestra su primera señal de vida. Rastrea los 37 indicadores en tiempo real durante la ventana macro más concentrada de 2026. Sin opiniones. Sin predicciones. Solo datos.
Ver Dashboard en Vivo →Disclaimer: This is market commentary based on publicly available data, not financial advice. NeverHodl™ does not recommend buying or selling any asset. The NHCI Score is an analytical tool - not a trading signal. Always do your own research (DYOR). Past performance does not guarantee future results.