What is SOPR?
SOPR stands for Spent Output Profit Ratio. It is calculated by dividing the value of a Bitcoin UTXO at the time it is spent by the value it had when it was created. A result above 1 means coins were moved at a profit; below 1 means they were moved at a loss.
The adjusted version - aSOPR - filters out short-term holders (UTXOs younger than 1 hour) to remove noise from same-day transactions and exchange rebalancing. This makes aSOPR a cleaner signal of genuine market conviction. NeverHodl tracks aSOPR in real time as one of its 37 NHCI indicators. Current aSOPR: -.
What aSOPR has signalled historically
During the November 2022 bear market bottom - when Bitcoin reached $15,500 - aSOPR dropped to approximately 0.85, meaning holders were selling coins at an average 15% loss. This extreme loss-selling is a capitulation signal: weak hands exit, reducing future sell pressure. Every major Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2017 has been accompanied by a sustained aSOPR reading below 1.
Conversely, when aSOPR consistently stays above 1.02–1.05, the market is in a profit-taking regime typical of bull market distribution phases. The transition from aSOPR > 1 sustained to aSOPR dipping below 1 and recovering back above has historically marked the start of the next accumulation phase.
aSOPR readings across NHCI phases
aSOPR typically falls to 0.80–0.95. Holders selling at sustained losses. Historically the highest-conviction entry zone for long-term buyers.
aSOPR hovers near 1.00–1.02. Market recovering. Neither strong profit-taking nor capitulation - a balanced, low-noise zone.
aSOPR rises to 1.02–1.08. Increasing profit-taking as price climbs. Healthy bull market signature - sellers are rewarded, not panicking.
aSOPR spikes above 1.05–1.15. Large holders locking in profits at scale. Risk is elevated. Historically precedes increased volatility within weeks.
aSOPR reaches extreme readings (>1.10 sustained). The entire market is selling at large profits. Every prior instance in Bitcoin's history has preceded a major correction.
The live aSOPR reading (-) is one of 37 indicators feeding the BTC NHCI Score. Combined with MVRV, NUPL, exchange flows, and macro signals, it gives a complete picture of where the Bitcoin cycle stands right now.
See aSOPR in the live BTC NHCI Dashboard →How aSOPR fits into the NHCI Score
The BTC NHCI Score uses aSOPR as one of its 37 on-chain and market indicators. It contributes to the model's sensitivity to short-term sentiment shifts - particularly useful for detecting capitulation events (aSOPR crashes below 1) and distribution tops (aSOPR sustained above 1.05).
aSOPR differs from MVRV and NUPL in an important way: it measures realized behavior in the current day, not aggregate unrealized positions. This makes it a leading indicator of momentum shifts, while MVRV and NUPL are better as structural cycle anchors. The NHCI combines both perspectives.
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The NeverHodl Dashboard shows aSOPR and all 36 other indicators live, with hourly AI cycle analysis and historical context. No account required.
Methodology → · Live API → · Data Attribution →
Key takeaways
- aSOPR = value of spent UTXO today ÷ value when it was created (adjusted to exclude UTXOs <1h old)
- Below 1: holders selling at a loss - historically marks cycle bottoms and capitulation events
- Above 1.05 sustained: profit-taking at scale - typical of distribution / Hot Zone phases
- aSOPR at Nov 2022 bottom (BTC: $15,500): approximately 0.85
- The BTC NHCI Score uses aSOPR as one of its 37 real-time indicators
- Current aSOPR: -
I have watched aSOPR flush below 1 in every cycle bottom I traded through, and the pattern is honest: it prints exactly when panic feels most rational. When holders sell at a loss on average, weak supply transfers to stronger hands, which is why I read those moments as opportunity rather than doom. The caveat: aSOPR is a same-day gauge, not a bottom-caller. It can stay under 1 for weeks, so I pair it with MVRV and NUPL before drawing any cycle conclusion.
Frequently asked questions
What is SOPR in Bitcoin?
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the ratio between the price at which Bitcoin was sold and the price at which it was originally acquired. A SOPR above 1 means sellers are realizing profits on average; below 1 means sellers are taking losses - which indicates capitulation.
What is aSOPR?
aSOPR (adjusted SOPR) filters out UTXOs younger than 1 hour - short-term arbitrage and exchange-internal movements - to focus on meaningful economic transfers. This makes it a cleaner signal for identifying genuine holder behavior rather than exchange noise.
What does aSOPR below 1 mean?
When aSOPR drops below 1, it means the average Bitcoin being sold is being sold at a loss. This is a capitulation signal - weak hands are being shaken out at a loss. Historically, aSOPR dropping and recovering above 1 has marked cycle bottoms and the beginning of recovery phases.
What does aSOPR above 1.10 signal?
aSOPR sustained above 1.10 means sellers are consistently realizing large profits. This signals distribution - long-term holders cashing out into rising prices. When this persists alongside high MVRV and NUPL, it confirms the market is approaching overvaluation and cycle risk is elevated.
How is SOPR different from MVRV?
MVRV measures unrealized profit/loss across all Bitcoin holders. SOPR specifically looks at realized transactions - Bitcoin that has actually moved on-chain. SOPR shows what holders are actively doing (selling at profit or loss), while MVRV shows the overall market's latent profit position.