What is the Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple is an on-chain indicator that measures the ratio between daily miner revenue (in USD) and the 365-day moving average of daily miner revenue. It was created by David Puell and later popularized through Glassnode, one of the leading on-chain analytics platforms.
The formula is straightforward: Puell Multiple = Daily Miner Revenue (USD) / 365-Day Moving Average of Daily Miner Revenue (USD). Miner revenue includes both block rewards (newly minted BTC) and transaction fees. Since all of this data lives on the Bitcoin blockchain, it is fully transparent and verifiable.
In simple terms: the Puell Multiple tells you whether miners are earning significantly more or less than their yearly average. A value of 1.0 means miners are earning exactly their yearly average. Below 1.0, they are earning less. Above 1.0, they are earning more.
Why does miner revenue matter? Miners are the backbone of Bitcoin's security. When their revenue drops significantly below the yearly average, it signals economic stress — some miners may shut down operations, reduce hash rate, or sell their BTC reserves to cover costs. These are conditions that historically align with cycle bottoms.
How to Read the Puell Multiple — Three Zones
The Puell Multiple divides into three zones based on historical behavior. These thresholds have been validated across every Bitcoin cycle since 2010:
Miners are earning less than half their yearly average. Severe economic stress — some miners capitulate and sell reserves. Historically, this zone has coincided with every major cycle bottom. Extremely rare readings.
Miners are earning within a normal range relative to their yearly average. No extreme signal. Most of the time, the Puell Multiple sits in this zone during healthy market conditions.
Miners are earning 4x or more above their yearly average. Euphoria — extreme profitability attracts excess selling pressure from miners taking profits. Historically, this zone has coincided with cycle tops.
Today's reading: Puell Multiple 0.530 — just above the green zone threshold. Miners are earning only 53% of their yearly average, indicating significant revenue pressure. This is the type of condition that has historically aligned with accumulation zones.
Puell Multiple in Bitcoin Cycles — Historical Data
The Puell Multiple has tracked every major Bitcoin cycle extreme since 2010. Here are the readings at key moments — all from real data across 5,986 daily data points:
| Date | Puell Multiple | Zone | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2017 | 6.312 | RED — EXTREME TOP | ATH — miners earning 6.3x above yearly average |
| Dec 2018 | 0.304 | GREEN — DEEP BOTTOM | Bear market bottom — miners barely profitable |
| Mar 2020 | 0.525 | GREEN — BOTTOM ZONE | COVID crash — massive sell-off across all markets |
| Apr 2021 | 3.223 | NEUTRAL — OVERHEATED | Local top — miners earning 3.2x above average |
| Nov 2021 | 1.642 | NEUTRAL — CYCLE TOP | ATH — lower peak than 2017 (diminishing returns) |
| Jun 2022 | 0.428 | GREEN — DEEP BOTTOM | Luna/Terra crash — miner capitulation |
| Nov 2022 | 0.466 | GREEN — DEEP BOTTOM | FTX collapse — market-wide contagion |
| Oct 2025 | 1.125 | NEUTRAL — MODERATE TOP | ATH — moderate miner euphoria |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 0.530 | BOTTOM ZONE | CURRENT — miners under pressure |
Sources: Glassnode, NeverHodl database (5,986 data points since 2010)Key insight: the Puell Multiple peak has been declining each cycle. December 2017 hit 6.312. November 2021 peaked at only 1.642. October 2025 reached just 1.125. This pattern of diminishing peaks reflects Bitcoin's maturing market structure — each cycle produces less extreme miner euphoria as the market grows.
Puell Multiple + NHCI — How They Work Together
NeverHodl uses the Puell Multiple as one of 37 indicators in the BTC NHCI Score. The Puell Multiple falls under the on-chain/mining category — it captures miner economic health, which is a fundamentally different dimension from price momentum (RSI), holder behavior (SOPR), or market sentiment (Fear & Greed).
The power of the NHCI is in multi-signal confluence. When the Puell Multiple is in the bottom zone AND other on-chain, technical, and sentiment indicators confirm the same signal — the confidence increases dramatically. Right now, the Puell Multiple at 0.530 is confirming what other indicators are also showing: the market is in a bottom zone.
When multiple independent indicators all point to the same condition simultaneously, the probability of a meaningful reading increases. This is the core principle behind the NHCI: no single indicator drives the score. All 37 must be evaluated together.
The Puell Multiple is just one of 37 indicators. See all of them — live, updated hourly — on the NeverHodl Dashboard. No account required.
View Live Dashboard →Current Reading: 0.530 — What It Means
At 0.530, the Puell Multiple is telling us that Bitcoin miners are earning only 53% of their 365-day average revenue. This places the current reading just above the green zone threshold of 0.5 — a level that has historically marked accumulation opportunities.
For context, here is how the current reading compares to previous bottom-zone readings:
The current Puell Multiple of 0.530 is comparable to the March 2020 COVID crash reading of 0.525. Both readings reflect severe miner revenue compression. The data shows a clear pattern: every time the Puell Multiple approached or entered the green zone, a significant recovery followed — though the timing ranged from weeks to months.
The data shows the pattern. What happens next is not guaranteed. The Puell Multiple identifies conditions — not timing. It tells you that miners are under stress, not when the stress will end. Historical correlation is not causation, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Limitations of the Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple is a valuable on-chain metric, but it has important limitations:
- Halvings distort the signal. Bitcoin's block reward halving events (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) cut daily miner revenue in half overnight. This creates a temporary artificial drop in the Puell Multiple that is not driven by market conditions but by protocol mechanics. The 365-day average takes months to adjust.
- The indicator can stay depressed for months. During prolonged bear markets, the Puell Multiple can remain near or below 0.5 for extended periods. It identifies a zone, not a precise turning point.
- Diminishing cycle peaks change the thresholds. The Dec 2017 peak hit 6.312 but the Nov 2021 peak was only 1.642. The traditional >4.0 red zone may become less relevant as Bitcoin matures. Future cycles may require adjusted thresholds.
- Never use a single indicator. The Puell Multiple captures one dimension — miner economics. It does not account for momentum, sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, or holder behavior. This is exactly why the NHCI aggregates 37 indicators across 6 categories.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Puell Multiple of 0.53 mean for Bitcoin?
A Puell Multiple of 0.53 means Bitcoin miners are currently earning only 53% of their 365-day average revenue. This indicates miners are under significant economic pressure — operating close to or below profitability thresholds. Historically, Puell Multiple readings below 0.5 have coincided with major cycle bottoms (Dec 2018 at 0.304, Jun 2022 at 0.428, Nov 2022 at 0.466). A reading of 0.53 sits just above the deep bottom zone, signaling that miner revenue stress is elevated but has not yet reached the extreme capitulation levels seen in prior bear markets.
Is a low Puell Multiple a buy signal?
A low Puell Multiple is a bottom-zone signal, not a buy signal. There is a critical difference. When the Puell Multiple drops below 0.5, it indicates miner revenue is severely depressed relative to the yearly average — a condition historically associated with cycle bottoms. However, the indicator can remain in the bottom zone for weeks or months before a recovery materializes. The most reliable approach is combining the Puell Multiple with other indicators — such as MVRV, SOPR, RSI, and sentiment data — to confirm whether depressed miner revenue aligns with broader cycle positioning. The NeverHodl NHCI Score does exactly this, aggregating the Puell Multiple with 36 other indicators.
How does NeverHodl use the Puell Multiple?
NeverHodl incorporates the Puell Multiple as one of 37 on-chain, technical, and macroeconomic indicators in the NHCI Score. The Puell Multiple falls under the on-chain/mining category. Rather than acting on the Puell Multiple alone, the NHCI engine normalizes it alongside indicators like MVRV, SOPR, RSI, Fear & Greed, funding rates, and macro liquidity data to produce a single 0-100 composite score. When multiple indicators confirm the same signal — the confidence in the reading increases significantly.
Who created the Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple was created by David Puell, a crypto analyst and researcher. It was later popularized and made widely accessible through Glassnode, a leading on-chain analytics platform. The indicator leverages the transparency of the Bitcoin blockchain — since all miner revenue (block rewards + transaction fees) is publicly verifiable — to create a reliable measure of miner economic health relative to historical norms. NeverHodl tracks the Puell Multiple using data going back to 2010, comprising over 5,986 daily data points.
Methodology → · Live API → · Data Attribution →
Disclaimer: This is educational content based on publicly available data, not financial advice. NeverHodl™ does not recommend buying or selling any asset. The NHCI Score is an analytical tool — not a trading signal. The Puell Multiple is an on-chain indicator that measures miner revenue dynamics, not a prediction of future price. Always do your own research (DYOR). Past performance does not guarantee future results.