How does the NHCI Score work?
The NHCI (NeverHodl Cycle Intelligence) Score is a composite index that aggregates 37 on-chain, macroeconomic, derivatives, and sentiment indicators into a single 0-100 reading. It maps Bitcoin's position within its market cycle across five phases: Bottom (0-35), Accumulation (35-45), Bull (45-65), Hot (65-75), and NeverHodl (75-100). Data is updated hourly from sources including Glassnode, CoinGecko, and FRED.
The Problem: Why One Indicator Is Never Enough
Every Bitcoin cycle, the same pattern repeats. MVRV flashes green, but the macro environment is tightening. Fear & Greed says "extreme fear," but exchange outflows show coins leaving - a bullish signal. On-chain says accumulate, sentiment says run. Which one do you trust?
The answer: none of them alone. The NHCI exists because no single indicator captures the full picture. A cycle is not just on-chain. It is not just sentiment. It is the convergence of on-chain, macro, derivatives, flows, and sentiment - all pointing in the same direction. That is when the signal is real.
The Architecture: 4 Layers
The NHCI processes data through four sequential layers:
Layer 1 - Data Ingestion. 37 raw indicators are fetched hourly from institutional-grade sources: Glassnode (on-chain), FRED/St. Louis Fed (US macro), CoinGecko and Kraken (market prices), Alternative.me (Fear & Greed), Coinglass (derivatives), ECB/BoJ/BoE/PBoC (global central banks), and DeFiLlama (DeFi). Every data source is publicly verifiable.
Layer 2 - Normalization. Each indicator is normalized to a 0–100 scale using a proprietary statistical method calibrated on 3,400+ days of Bitcoin history (January 2017 to present). This ensures that an MVRV of 3.5 and a Fear & Greed of 80 are comparable - both represent "elevated cycle risk" in their respective domains.
Layer 3 - Phase-Adaptive Aggregation. This is the core innovation. The 37 normalized scores are combined into a single composite - but the weight of each indicator shifts depending on where Bitcoin currently sits in the cycle. On-chain capitulation signals (SOPR, NUPL, Reserve Risk) carry more weight during bottoms. Sentiment and derivatives signals (funding rates, open interest, Fear & Greed) carry more weight near tops. The same MVRV reading means something different at score 20 than at score 70. The NHCI accounts for this.
Layer 4 - Contextual Overlays. Two proprietary safety layers operate independently of the main score. DescentGuard detects when Bitcoin is in a bear market descent disguised as an accumulation opportunity - preventing false buy signals during falling markets. InstitutionalTopRisk detects distribution patterns from large holders before the main score fully enters the danger zone. These overlays have been validated on 7 historical events (2021-2026).
The 6 Indicator Categories
MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, LTH-SOPR, STH-MVRV, LTH-MVRV, Puell Multiple, Thermocap Multiple, Reserve Risk. Source: Glassnode.
Fear & Greed, BTC Dominance, Funding Rate, Open Interest, RSI-14, SSR Oscillator. Sources: Alternative.me, CoinGecko, Coinglass.
Global M2 YoY, M2 3-month, Fed Balance Sheet, US 10Y Yield, VIX. Source: FRED / St. Louis Fed.
EU M3, ECB Balance Sheet, Japan M2, Japan Monetary Base, UK M4, BoE Balance Sheet, China M2, PBoC Balance Sheet. Sources: ECB, BoJ, BoE, PBoC.
DXY (US Dollar Index), EUR/USD, JPY/USD, GBP/USD, CNY/USD, Stablecoin Supply. Sources: FRED, CoinGecko.
Exchange Net Flow, Miner Net Flow, Recession Probability (NY Fed), ETF Flows. Sources: Glassnode, NY Fed, Coinglass.
The 5 Cycle Phases
The final score maps to one of five phases. Each phase has a distinct risk/reward profile and historical behavior pattern:
The NHCI Dashboard shows all 37 indicators in real time - updated every hour, free to access. See the full architecture in action.
Open Live Dashboard →NHCI vs Fear & Greed Index
The Fear & Greed Index is the most popular crypto sentiment tool. But it measures only one dimension - crowd psychology. The NHCI takes a fundamentally different approach:
| FEAR & GREED | NHCI | |
|---|---|---|
| Indicators | 6 | 37 |
| Categories | 1 (sentiment) | 6 |
| On-chain | No | 9 indicators |
| Macro | No | 13 indicators |
| Phase-adaptive weights | No | Yes |
| Update frequency | Daily | Hourly |
| Calibration | Not documented | 3,400+ days |
| Track record | Not documented | 8/8 since 2017 |
Public API - Free, No Auth
The NHCI Score is available via a free public API. No registration, no API key, no rate limit walls:
Key takeaways
- The NHCI Score aggregates 37 indicators across 6 categories - no single indicator dominates the output
- Phase-adaptive weighting means the same data is interpreted differently depending on cycle position
- Contextual overlays (DescentGuard, InstitutionalTopRisk) add safety layers that operate independently of the main score
- All data sources are institutional-grade and publicly verifiable - Glassnode, FRED, CoinGecko, Kraken, ECB, BoJ, BoE, PBoC
- The NHCI has correctly identified 8 out of 8 major cycle turning points since 2017 - calibrated on 3,400+ days of data
Disclaimer: The NHCI Score is an educational market data tool. It does not constitute financial advice. NeverHodl™ does not tell users to buy or sell - it shows the data and the opportunity. The user decides. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always DYOR. MiCA EU 2023/1114. OEPM M4370276.
Methodology → · Live API → · Data Attribution →
After trading several full cycles, I stopped hunting for the one magic indicator. That is the whole point of the NHCI: no single metric drives it, and the weights shift as the cycle moves. On-chain signals matter most near bottoms, sentiment near tops. It reads position, not a price. The honest caveat: 8 out of 8 past turns is history, not a promise. Use it to gauge how late the cycle runs, never as an excuse to stop thinking. I stay long crypto, disciplined on timing.
Frequently asked questions
How does the NHCI Score work?
The NHCI Score aggregates 37 indicators across 6 categories (on-chain fundamentals, market sentiment, US macro liquidity, global central bank liquidity, FX & stablecoins, flow & holder behavior) into a single 0-100 reading. Each indicator is normalized to a 0-100 scale, then combined using phase-adaptive weights that shift based on the current cycle position. The score is recalculated hourly.
What indicators does the NHCI use?
37 indicators: MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, LTH-SOPR, STH-MVRV, LTH-MVRV, Puell Multiple, Thermocap Multiple, Reserve Risk, Fear & Greed, BTC Dominance, Funding Rate, Open Interest, RSI-14, SSR Oscillator, Global M2 YoY, M2 3-month, Fed Balance Sheet, US 10Y Yield, VIX, EU M3, ECB Balance Sheet, Japan M2, Japan Monetary Base, UK M4, BoE Balance Sheet, China M2, PBoC Balance Sheet, DXY, EUR/USD, JPY/USD, GBP/USD, CNY/USD, Stablecoin Supply, Exchange Net Flow, Miner Net Flow, Recession Probability.
What does phase-adaptive weighting mean?
Different indicators are more predictive at different points in the Bitcoin cycle. On-chain capitulation signals (SOPR, NUPL) are strongest at cycle bottoms, while sentiment indicators (Fear & Greed, funding rates) are strongest at cycle tops. Phase-adaptive weighting means the NHCI automatically adjusts how much each indicator contributes to the final score based on where Bitcoin currently sits in its cycle.
Where does NHCI get its data?
From institutional-grade sources: Glassnode (on-chain metrics), FRED/St. Louis Fed (US macro data), CoinGecko (market data), Kraken (BTC price), Alternative.me (Fear & Greed), Coinglass (derivatives), ECB/BoJ/BoE/PBoC (central bank data), and DeFiLlama (DeFi TVL). All sources are publicly verifiable.
How accurate is the NHCI Score?
The NHCI has correctly identified 8 out of 8 major Bitcoin cycle turning points since 2017, including the December 2018 bottom ($3,200), the November 2021 ATH ($69,000), and the October 2025 ATH ($126,198) with 24 days advance warning. The score is calibrated on 3,400+ days of historical data.
See all 37 indicators live - free.
The NeverHodl Dashboard tracks all 37 cycle indicators live, updated every hour. See the full NHCI architecture in action.