iPower Files S-1 With Bitcoin: Who Is Still Buying in the BULL Phase?
Quick answerOn October 16, 2026, iPower Inc. (Nasdaq: IPW, CIK 0001830072) filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC that explicitly references Bitcoin, signaling a probable capital raise structured around the asset. The filing lands on a day when MSCI finalized index rules that may force Strategy and Metaplanet out of major equity benchmarks, when roughly $1 billion in crypto derivatives were liquidated in a single session, and when stablecoin supply tracked by DeFiLlama contracted 0.44% over seven days to $183.50B. Together, these three data points define the 'Follow the Money' read for the BULL phase: institutional vehicles are multiplying at the small-cap end, while legacy index frameworks are trying to contain the largest corporate holders, and derivatives leverage is being periodically reset. The BTC NHCI sits at 45.2 - seven weeks into the BULL phase, with a 7-day velocity of -2 - signaling a phase that is consolidating rather than accelerating.
Market snapshot as of 2026-10-16, this brief's publication date. Live figures update on the Dashboard.
What happened
- iPower Inc. (CIK 0001830072) filed an S-1 with the SEC on October 16, 2026, referencing Bitcoin as part of a prospective capital raise. S-1 filings are registration statements for public offerings; Bitcoin's inclusion in the document implies the company intends to use proceeds in connection with Bitcoin or position itself as a Bitcoin-linked equity vehicle - a pattern NeverHodl has tracked across 24 prior filings (latest: Daily Brief 2026 10 09). At $82,281 per BTC (CoinGecko, Oct 16), each new small-cap S-1 adds a marginal but compounding demand signal at the corporate treasury layer.
- MSCI finalized revised index methodology rules on or around October 16, 2026, that would classify companies whose primary business activity is holding cryptocurrency - including Strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet - as potentially ineligible for standard equity index inclusion. The mechanism matters: passive funds tracking MSCI indexes would be forced sellers of any excluded name, regardless of their own conviction on Bitcoin. Strategy currently holds approximately 252,220 BTC per its most recent public disclosures, making any forced liquidation of MSTR equity a second-order flow event worth watching. This is an index structure risk, not a Bitcoin fundamentals deterioration.
- Crypto derivatives markets recorded liquidations approaching $1 billion in a single session on October 16, 2026, per CoinGlass data, as Bitcoin briefly traded below $80,000 before buyers stepped in and price recovered toward $82,281 (CoinGecko). BTC futures open interest stands at $65.15B with a funding rate of 0.0035% (CoinGecko derivatives), which reads as balanced - not stretched. The sub-$80K dip triggered the liquidation cascade, but the rapid recovery and neutral funding suggest the flush was a positioning reset rather than a structural breakdown. MVRV at 1.52 (on-chain, Glassnode-consistent methodology) places the market in mid-cycle territory, well below the 2.5-3.5 range historically associated with cycle tops.
- Stablecoin supply contracted 0.44% over seven days to $183.50B as of October 16, 2026, per DeFiLlama - a modest but directionally negative liquidity signal. Simultaneously, Circle announced plans to target 40 new markets globally as stablecoin demand grows, per regulatory filings and company announcements. The divergence is meaningful: aggregate on-chain supply is shrinking at the margin while the infrastructure for future demand expansion is actively being built. This is consistent with a BULL phase pause - liquidity available but not yet being deployed at scale into risk assets.
What it could mean
The BTC NHCI at 45.2 - seven weeks into the BULL phase with a 7-day velocity of -2 and a 30-day velocity of -1.3 - signals a phase in deceleration, not reversal. The 'Follow the Money' read for October 16 is that institutional demand is broadening (new S-1 filings, Circle's geographic expansion) but not yet accelerating in a way that drives price away from the $80K-$84K consolidation band. The MSCI rule change introduces a structural overhang on the largest corporate Bitcoin holders: if Strategy is ejected from major indexes, passive fund selling of MSTR equity could briefly compress the most prominent corporate Bitcoin proxy, though it would not alter Bitcoin's own on-chain supply dynamics. The $1B liquidation event cleared leveraged shorts and longs simultaneously - with neutral funding at $65.15B open interest, the derivatives market is not signaling imminent directional conviction either way. The forward read: if stablecoin supply rebounds above $184B and spot ETF flows turn persistently positive, a NHCI velocity reversal above zero would be the first quantitative signal that the phase is re-accelerating. Until then, the BULL phase is real but consolidating.
Scenarios and levels to watch
If stablecoin supply (DeFiLlama) recovers above $184B within the next 7-10 days AND spot Bitcoin ETF flows tracked by Farside turn net positive for three consecutive days, watch for BTC open interest to build above $67B with funding still below 0.01% - that combination would signal spot-led accumulation re-engaging without leverage excess. NHCI velocity returning above zero would be the quantitative confirmation.
If BTC closes on a daily basis below $79,500 (CoinGecko) AND stablecoin supply continues contracting below $182B (DeFiLlama), the NHCI velocity would likely deepen negative, increasing the probability of a phase boundary re-test. The MSCI index decision forcing passive selling of MSTR would amplify this path by removing a visible corporate demand signal from equity markets.
Key levels to watch: $80,000 (the dip buyer defense line tested October 16, per CoinGecko); $84,500 (resistance at recent consolidation ceiling); $65.15B BTC open interest (CoinGecko) as the baseline - a move above $67B with neutral funding is constructive; stablecoin supply at $183.50B (DeFiLlama) - direction of weekly change is the liquidity leading indicator.
The View
I have watched corporate Bitcoin vehicles multiply through multiple cycles, and the pattern of small-cap S-1 filings accelerating near the BULL phase midpoint is one I recognise. What gives me pause today is the MSCI development: index reclassification of the largest corporate holders is not a Bitcoin sell signal, but it is a second-order flow risk that the market has not fully priced. The NHCI at 45.2 with negative velocity says the phase is real but earning its next leg, not inheriting it. My caveat: stablecoin contraction and a $1B liquidation event in the same session tell me the tape is thinning, not thickening. That is not a reason to abandon the thesis - it is a reason to watch the liquidity refill before reading too much into the recovery.
FAQ
BTC NHCI 45.2. BULL phase, seven weeks in, velocity -2. The phase is real. Data, not opinions.
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