Cuadro NHCI
The NHCI score dropped 7.3 points this week but remains firmly in Accumulation territory (35–45). This is the zone where historically, smart money builds positions quietly while retail sentiment remains cautious. The drop reflects a healthy cooldown, not a trend reversal.
Qué Movió el Mercado
- Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% - market prices 1–2 additional cuts by Q4 2026. Dovish tone in the statement.
- DXY fell to 104.2 - weakening dollar is historically favorable for risk assets including BTC.
- US CPI at 3.1% - slight decline from 3.2%. Disinflation trend intact but slow.
- BTC ETF inflows: +$1.2B net this week - 4th consecutive week of positive flows. BlackRock IBIT leading.
- Funding rates neutral (0.01%) - no excessive leverage. Clean market structure.
- BTC dominance: 59.1% - holding above 59% suggests alt rotation hasn't started yet. BTC-first cycle phase.
Pulso On-Chain
Inspirado en la metodología de Glassnode Insights
- MVRV 1.47 - undervalued zone. As noted by on-chain analysts, MVRV below 1.5 has preceded every major rally since 2015. The last time we were here was December 2022, before the +660% move.
- NUPL 0.32 - holders in moderate profit, no euphoria. This reading historically corresponds to the early-to-mid accumulation phase.
- Exchange outflows continue - net negative for 3 consecutive weeks. Less BTC available on exchanges means less sell pressure.
All three on-chain categories confirm what the NHCI score is showing: accumulation phase without signs of overheating. The convergence between MVRV, NUPL, and exchange flows makes this one of the cleanest accumulation setups in the current cycle.
Contexto del Ciclo - ¿Dónde Estamos?
Comparación histórica entre ciclos de mercado Bitcoin
We are on day 937 since the last cycle bottom (November 2022, FTX crash). Here's where the NHCI was at the same point in previous cycles:
El score actual (43) es consistente con la fase de transición acumulación-bull vista en ambos ciclos anteriores. En 2018, el score era 38 en este punto y BTC posteriormente subió +200% en los siguientes 12 meses. En 2022, el score era más alto (52) pero el entorno macro era diferente.
Qué Vigilar la Próxima Semana
La Tesis
La tesis alcista sigue intacta mientras el score se mantenga por debajo de 55.
The accumulation phase historically lasts 2–6 months. We are in week 1. Patience is the edge. The data confirms institutional positioning, declining exchange supply, and a macro environment tilting toward risk-on. There is no rush - the cycle rewards those who act on data, not emotion.
What would change this: score crossing 65 without a pullback, sudden CPI spike, or a macro shock (geopolitical, banking stress).
La Visión NeverHodl™
El ruido dice "mercado aburrido." Los datos dicen "acumulación en progreso." Cada ciclo, esta fase parece que no pasa nada - hasta que pasa. El NHCI está en 43. El on-chain está verde. El macro se inclina favorable. Este no es el momento de perseguir. Este es el momento de prepararse.
Mira dónde estamos en el ciclo - los 37 indicadores, actualizados cada hora, acceso gratuito.
Metodología → · API en Vivo → · Atribución de Datos →
Contenido educativo basado en datos públicamente disponibles. No es asesoramiento financiero. DYOR. NeverHodl™ muestra datos - tú tomas las decisiónes. OEPM M4370276.